GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 18 to 22.07.2016 (Seen firm next week; pvt banks' results eyed)

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 18 to 22.07.2016
(Seen firm next week; pvt banks' results eyed)

Stocks of banks are seen trading with a positive bias next week, with markets eyeing cues from Apr-
Jun earnings of some of the large private sector banks along with strong technical cues.
The key stock specific triggers will emerge from the Apr-Jun performance of large private banks such
as HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, and Federal Bank in the coming week. Among
smaller private banks, Lakshmi Vilas Bank will declare their results while state-owned banks such as
State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur, and Vijaya Bank will also declare their numbers.

Based on the continued strong performance on core business and profits, with growing branch network base, increase in current account and savings account, and superior asset quality are expected to help IndusInd Bank perform stronger than peers over the next few years.

The key trigger for state-owned banks will be the announcement of the first tranche of capital from the government, which they can leverage on to boost their growth for the rest of this financial year.
Earlier week, quoting a finance ministry source, had reported that the government is likely to
announce the first tranche of recapitalisation of public sector banks for 2016-17 (Apr-Mar). The
budgeted allocation for this financial year is 250 bln rupees, and the first tranche is expected to be less than 200 bln rupees.

As the week progressed, open interest has started shifting to 19500 strike Calls as well indicating
buying interest. On the Put side, 18500 and 18700 strikes witnessed decent additions. We feel a close
above the highest Call base will trigger a fresh round of upsides for the Banknifty index towards
19300-19500.