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Indian Market Outlook for the week - 24 to 28.04.2017

Indian Market Outlook for the week - 24 to 28.04.2017


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Indian Market Outlook for the week - 24 to 28.04.2017
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The earnings for Jan-Mar by index heavyweights Reliance Industries and Kotak Mahindra Bank, and the outcome of the first round of presidential elections in France will likely determine the direction of domestic benchmark indices next week. At the same time, usual volatility will prevail ahead of the expiry of the April derivative series on Thursday, as market participants ponder over rolling over their current positions. The benchmark indices recent lacklustre movement is likely to continue next week, with action being dominated by individual stocks and sectors. In the absence of major domestic triggers, benchmark indices have moved in tandem with global equity markets in recent sessions. The presidential elections in France are a key event for financial market participants. The first round of French presidential elections will conclude over the weekend, with only two of the current 11 candidates expected to get through to the second round. Experts view fear that a victory for Front National leader Marine Le Pen may bring uncertainty over the future of the European Union and the euro currency. Apart from external concerns, banking stocks direction next week will likely be determined by the earnings of Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank. Investors may also await more clarity from the government on reports that it may increase the loan tenure for the telecom industry.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017
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The stocks of most metal and mining companies are seen continuing their consolidation next week, as they await triggers from quarterly earnings for Jan-Mar. The sentiment for shares of metal companies is weak given the recent correction in base metal prices globally due to geo-political tensions, and concerns of growth in major economies, including China. With the exception of aluminium major Hindalco Industries, shares of most metal companies have corrected this week. The stocks of Hindalco Industries gained close to 3% this week, as the stock was supported by higher aluminium prices globally on reports of some capacities being shut in western China. The stocks of Jindal Steel and Power, which were among the major laggards this week with over 8% losses, are also seen extending their fall. Weighed down by losses in most of its constituents, the Nifty Metal index ended lower for the second consecutive week yesterday. The Nifty Metal index is probably among the only sectoral index which has underperformed the Nifty 50 this year, and there is no strength technically. Fundamentally, earnings in the next few weeks, and prices of commodities globally will be the key triggers for these stocks. The stocks of most steel companies have been weak recently due to a surge in coking coal costs, but these shares could see some buying next week as most company officials have said they do not see a major hit to their margins.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
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The shares of information technology companies are seen trading with a negative bias in the coming week. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd announced its earnings for the March quarter on Tuesday, reporting a 2.5% drop in consolidated net profit. The company, however, remains optimistic about the future, in sharp contrast to its peers. While Cyient reported a 16.7% sequential fall in consolidated net profit for Jan-Mar, Mindtree fared better than expected, with a 1.8% sequential rise in net profit for Jan-Mar. Geopolitical headwinds returned to the Indian information technology sector this week with Australia on Wednesday scrapping its skilled visa programme, leading to uncertainty, though industry body NASSCOM was quick to point out that the move was unlikely to hit Indian IT workers. On the same day, US President Donald Trump, in a renewed attempt to push forward his mandate of "Buy America, Hire American" themed reforms, signed an executive order calling for a tightening of the H-1B visa programme. Though the move is seen as having no immediate impact on H-1B visas, the long-term implications of Trump's intentions remain unclear. Next week, investors will track the Jan-Mar earnings of Wipro Ltd, whose shares are seen trading in the range of 470-497 rupees. In the coming week, support for TCS shares is seen at around 2,252 rupees and resistance at around 2,386 rupees, while Infosys shares are seen trading at 901-950 rupees.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017
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The Fast moving consumer goods companies are seen trading in a tight range next week as most companies are likely to gain some momentum in hopes of good southwest monsoon this year. India is likely to receive "normal" southwest monsoon rainfall for the second consecutive year in 2017, despite the threat of El Nino conditions developing, according to the India Meteorological Department. Southwest monsoon rainfall in India is likely to be 96% of the long-period average, the weather bureau said. Monsoon has a large impact on sales of FMCG companies, especially in rural areas. Good rains during the Jun-Sep monsoon also help soften commodity prices, which in turn helps companies struggling with high input costs. Sales of most FMCG companies had taken a hit post demonetisation. Though the effect has nearly worn out due to remonetisation, growth in wholesale channel remains sluggish. While volume growth for companies like ITC, Hindustan Unilever, and Dabur India is likely to remain in low single digit in the near term, Marico, Godrej Consumer Products and Britannia Industries may see a 6-8% growth. Some companies could also opt for price hikes before the goods and services tax rates are finalised. A pullback of promotional offers and campaigns can also be expected in the days to come.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
The share of cement companies are seen positive next week, as recent price hikes undertaken by these firms are seen aiding profits. Since February, cement manufacturers have increased prices by 20-70 rupees per 50-kg bag in different parts of the country. The price hikes came in the wake of a revival in cement demand, which was hit by the government's decision to demonetise 500 and 1,000 rupee currency notes in November to curb black money. The prices have improved in last couple of months and may go up further, as the demand is expected to increase. In the Union Budget for 2017-18 (Apr-Mar), the government had allocated a record 3.96 trln rupees to infrastructure. This, along with the push for affordable housing, is seen positive for the industry and is likely drive demand for cement. Investors will also track the financial results of cement companies for Jan-Mar. ACC Ltd was the first major cement company to report its earnings for the quarter ended March. Today, the company reported a consolidated net profit of 2.1 bln rupees for Jan-Mar, down 8.9% on year. Other cement companies will report their earnings in the coming days. High prices of petroleum coke and high freight costs could hurt realisations in Jan-Mar quarter.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
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The shares of most automobile companies are likely to trade in a narrow range next week, ahead of earnings releases for the March quarter. Maruti Suzuki India and TVS Motor Co will be in focus as they will detail their Jan-Mar earnings on Thursday. Maruti Suzuki, the country's largest manufacturer of passenger cars, is likely to witness some pressure on its results due to the commissioning of its Gujarat plant in February. Initially, the company may face some pressure due to higher depreciation costs and fixed expenses at its Gujarat plant. So, that may impact earnings to an extent. However, outlook for the company, which has a 47% market share in the passenger car segment, remains strong due to its portfolio of premium products such as the Baleno hatchback and Vitara Brezza sport utility vehicle. While the Ignis hatchback has not done considerably well and has not met expectations of the company, other models are doing well and aid the company's growth outlook. The country's largest two-wheeler maker, Hero MotoCorp, is likely to benefit from the forecast of a normal monsoon by the India Meteorological Department the company derives huge demand from rural regions. TVS Motor Co is expected to post better earnings for Jan-Mar as the company had the minimum impact of demonetisation in the entire two-wheeler space.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
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The Pharmaceutical stocks are likely to remain weak as market participants expect companies' earnings for Jan-Mar to be subdued due to pricing pressure in the US and domestic market. We have forecast weak US sales growth on a sequential basis for most companies due to high competition in key products, base business erosion, and limited key launches. The shares of Aurobindo Pharma, which is also expected to report weak earnings, are seen falling to 622 rupees, below which it is likely to find support at 611 rupees. Regulatory issues around many companies' drug manufacturing units are also seen affecting stocks. Yesterday, reports said that US FDA has noted incomplete laboratory records among potential manufacturing violations when it inspected Sun Pharmaceutical Industries' Dadra facility. The regulator had cited 11 adverse observations after its inspection. The observations at the facility were similar to those noted at the company's Halol facility, which received a warning letter in December 2015. The shares of India's largest pharmaceutical company were the worst hit on the Nifty 50 this week as investors grew jittery about its persisting regulatory woes. Earlier this month, Indoco Remedies had also received a warning letter for its Goa facility. Most companies have units that have received warning letters from the US FDA for a unit or the regulator has cited adverse observations for their facilities. Wockhardt is among the worst hit, with three of its facilities at Chikalthana, Waluj, and Ankleshwar under US FDA's import alert. The regulator also issued a warning letter to its arm's Morton Grove facility in March. Next week, shares of the company are expected to trade weak and are seen finding support at 716 rupees.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

 Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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 Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
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The Movement in shares of telecommunication companies is likely to be stock specific next week. We expect shares of Tata Communications Ltd and Bharti Airtel Ltd to rise, while those of Idea Cellular Ltd to witness price correction. The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday asked banks to give immediate attention to the telecom sector, and asked them to review their exposure by Jun 30. Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular shouldn't see much impact. As much as 60% of their debt is related to spectrum and the rest is foreign debt. The sector has been witnessing pressure on tariff and revenue after the entry of Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd. The subsidiary of Reliance Industries Ltd offered free data and voice services for over five months before announcing aggressive tariffs. Incumbent telecom operators have also announced matching tariff plans to compete. The sector is also in the midst of a legal battle between operators. Bharti Airtel has moved Telecom Disputes Settlement and Appellate Tribunal against the partial rollback of Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd's 'Summer Surprise' plan. Just a day after withdrawing this plan for new users, Reliance Jio announced a new one-time 'Jio Dhan Dhana Dhan' offer to sweeten the deal for subscribers who could not avail of the withdrawn scheme. Rising competition in the sector has also led to consolidation. Bharti Airtel has announced two separate acquisitions of Tikona Digital Networks Pvt Ltd and the Indian arm of Norway's Telenor ASA. Vodafone India and Idea Cellular have also announced a merger, which is pending regulatory approvals.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
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The Bank stocks are likely to be volatile with a negative bias next week because of concern about a rise in provisioning in Jan-Mar, as well as due to the expiry of the May derivatives series, scheduled for Thursday. The action is expected to be stock-specific because of the announcement of earnings for the quarter ended March. Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IDFC Bank, and Indian Bank will detail their earnings next week. So far, HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank and YES Bank have reported healthy growth in bottomline, though provisions rose sharply. For HDFC Bank, a part of the rise in provisions was because some loans that had availed dispensation for repayment due to demonetisation slipped into the bad loan category in Jan- Mar. IndusInd Bank and YES Bank had to make standard asset provisions against a specific loan for takeover activity in the cement sector, on the directive of the Reserve Bank of India. Since the deal is likely to be concluded soon, these banks are expecting reversal of the provision. The cement account is likely that of Jaiprakash Associates Ltd, which is close to inking a deal to sell its cement business to UltraTech Cement Ltd. Further, the RBI's new norms on higher standard asset provisioning and additional disclosures are seen as a concern for most banks. The RBI has asked banks to make additional disclosures if there is a major divergence between reporting of bad loans by lenders and that assessed by the central bank under the supervisory process. It said that the merger of its five associate banks should lead to synergies and increase SBI's balance sheet strength, as well as profitability from a long-term perspective.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
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The shares of public sector oil refining and retailing companies--Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd--are likely to move higher next week on the back of strong technical charts and robust fundamentals. These three companies are backed by strong fundamentals, including rising domestic demand for fuels and robust refining and marketing margins, which lends them a positive outlook for the medium to long term. In the absence of any major sectoral triggers, crude oil prices, news flow and the broad market sentiment could impact the shares of oil companies. Prices of crude oil are likely to remain under pressure next week because of rising production in the US and amid uncertainty about major producers extending output cut beyond June. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih had said production cut deal could be extended for another three or six months beyond June. The prospect of the extension of the output deal was reiterated by Kuwait. According to media reports, Kuwait's Oil Minister Essam al-Marzouq has said the country expects Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producers to extend the agreement. However, the market has not reacted to these statements given that such news is released on a daily basis, and OPEC's goal to erode crude inventories to five-year average is far from being achieved. Scepticism is therefore warranted, especially as it is still unclear whether the new deal will apply for six or only three months, and whether non-OPEC countries will sign up to it. OPEC and other producers had agreed to cut output by 1.8 mln barrels per day in Jan-Jun. Stocks of upstream players such as Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd and Oil India Ltd may witness negativity on account of the weakness in oil prices. If the dollar weakens against the rupee, it could add to the woes of upstream companies' stocks. This is because these companies price oil and gas in dollars and a weaker greenback means lower actual price realisation in rupee terms. On the other hand, refining companies stand to gain from a weaker dollar, as it would reduce their outgo towards purchase of crude oil and gas.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
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The shares of capital goods companies are likely to trade in a range next week, due to lack of significant triggers and an overall grim outlook for fresh orders in the near term. Sector bellwether Larsen & Toubro could see a slight upside, riding on recent construction order wins worth 26.94 bln rupees. The stock is likely to trade in the range of 1,695-1,700 rupees in the upcoming week. So far in 2017, shares of the company have gained 25%. The power generation vertical of BHEL is still largely muted. However, we are bullish on Thermax in the near-to-mid term, following some positive management commentary. The company is expected to announce decent order inflows in the next few weeks. Siemens stock is likely to be range-bound in the forthcoming week, but could gain in the short term as the company is seen reporting robust net profit and net sales in the quarter ended March.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Indian Market Outlook for the week - 17 to 21.04.2017

Indian Market Outlook for the week - 17 to 21.04.2017


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Indian Market Outlook for the week - 17 to 21.04.2017
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Benchmark indices are seen moving in a narrow range next week as investors' focus will shift to quarterly earnings which started with Infosys. Infosys' weak earnings in Jan-Mar and disappointing growth guidance for 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) disappointed investors last day. It weighed not only on the information technology sector but on the broader market as well. The decline in Infosys pulled down Nifty 50 and Sensex by 0.6% each to 9150.80 points and 29461.45, respectively. Intraday, Nifty 50 breached the 9150-mark and touched a low of 9144.95. The dismal show by Infosys triggered selling by foreign institutional investors who offloaded shares worth 4.08 bln rupees last thursday, according to provisional data on the National Stock Exchange website. Though market participants expect the weakness to spill over to the next week, they do not anticipate any sharp fall in indices. Most expect Nifty 50 to find strong support at 9100 points. Another reason why market participants see limited downside for shares is because of derivatives data showing no major liquidation of long positions in the April futures of Nifty 50 and absence of any short positions. Though Nifty is hovering around its strong support zone of 9150-9200, we are not seen any meaningful activity from FIIs. Thus, market seems to be waiting for fresh buying from stronger hands in order to resume its upward momentum. The Nifty 50 trading at an all-time high is a reflection of the surprise resilience of GDP growth post demonetisation and the Bharatiya Janata Party's victory in state Assembly elections. Year-to-date returns have, however, been driven almost entirely by multiple expansion and FX appreciation, neither of which we believe, is Sustainable.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.04.2017

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.04.2017


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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.04.2017
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Stocks of most automobile companies are seen rising next week, with Maruti Suzuki India Ltd and Eicher Motors Ltd in focus. The stock of Maruti Suzuki is retain buying status at every price as the company has a strong outlook for the current financial year on the back of a popular product portfolio including Baleno hatchback and Vitara Brezza sports utility vehicle. The proposed launch of a new Swift hatchback in November or December is also seen helping the stock in the long term. Stock are also bullish on shares of Eicher Motors, which recently received an upgrade in target price by brokerage firm Citigroup Global Markets by 7% to 30,000 rupees from 28,000 rupees earlier. We believes the addition of new production capacity at Vallam Vadagal in Tamil Nadu will help expand Eicher Motors' margins further, as higher volumes will result in better price negotiations with vendors. While Hero MotoCorp Ltd is showing signs of recovery in the two-wheeler segment amid gradual improvement in cash availability situation at the ground level in rural regions, Bajaj Auto Ltd does not have a very optimistic Outlook. If this monsoon turns out to be good, the rural spending will be done on discretionary expenses as the essential expenditure has already been done last year after two years of poor rains. So, this will benefit Hero MotoCorp as it has a large rural presence. While V and Avenger motorcycles are doing fairly average, Bajaj does not have a product portfolio which perpetually performs well unlike Hero's Splendor and Passion. Tata Motors Ltd's performance is also likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to weak sales of Jaguar Land Rover and the depreciation of pound.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.04.2017

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.04.2017


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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.04.2017
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Some consolidation is seen in the stocks of banks in the coming week, with the beginning of the announcement of corporate earnings for Jan-Mar, especially after the recent gains this week. The underlying sentiment continues to be positive, expect the Nifty Bank index to again trend upwards, after investors booked profits in these stocks. The Nifty Bank/Nifty price ratio continues to consolidate above 2.30 levels. Till it is trading above this level, the banking index may resume upsides in the days to come. Both private banking and PSU banking stocks are looking good and after brief consolidation, they are expected to outperform the market. The Nifty Bank is likely to find support at 21200-21400 levels. Below 21200 levels, extended selling might be seen. Last day, the Nifty Bank ended up 0.09% at 21686.60 points. Jammu & Kashmir Bank on Saturday, IndusInd Bank and YES Bank on Wednesday, and HDFC Bank on Friday. While banks are expected to continue to be weighed down by concerns about asset quality, a low earnings base due to the central bank's asset quality review in the year-ago period is seen pushing up bank' overall earnings for Jan-Mar. Due to the demonetisation effect, growth in deposits is expected to remain strong. Improvement in the credit-deposit ratio, declining trends in slippages and no one-offs will drive net interest margins sequentially. However, sluggish loan growth, lower treasury gains and higher levels of provisions are seen capping the gains.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 17. to 21.04.2017

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 17. to 21.04.2017


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Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 17. to 21.04.2017
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Backed by robust fundamentals and a strong trend on charts, shares of public sector oil refining and retiling companies--Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd-- are likely to move higher next week. These stocks have been in a rising trend for a fortnight now and reports of positive developments at the policy level, such as a possible move towards daily revision in fuel prices, have made them more buoyant. These three companies are backed by strong fundamentals, including rising domestic demand for fuels and robust refining and marketing margins, which lends them a generally positive fundamental outlook for the medium to long term. In the absence of any major sectoral triggers, crude oil prices, news flow and the broad market sentiment could impact the shares of oil companies. According to industry sources, the three public sector fuel retailers plan to move to daily price revisions and are likely to launch a pilot run for this in five cities--Chandigarh, Udaipur, Jamshedpur, Visakhapatnam, and Pondicherry. Any further development on this front could impact the stocks of these Companies. As for prices of crude oil, they are likely to continue strengthening for the second week running, after witnessing weakness over the previous few weeks. Geopolitical concerns and expectation that major exporters will extend their deal to cut production to the second half of 2017 are likely to keep crude oil prices in the green on the global and domestic exchanges next week. According to media reports, Saudi Arabia has sought to extend the production cut deal from other members of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Production at Libya's largest oil field Sharara has been halted after the country's militia blocked the pipelines connecting the oil terminal. This is also a positive for the crude oil prices. Strong demand from China--one of the leading consumers of the world will also keep crude prices buoyed next week. Customs data showed that China imported a record 38.95 mln tn of crude in March, up 19% on year, dethroning the US to become the largest importer in the world. Stocks of upstream players such as Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd and Oil India Ltd, may derive some positivity from the renewed strength in oil prices. But the gains may be capped, given they are bound to be hit by a weaker dollar against the rupee. This is because these companies price oil and gas in dollars and a weaker greenback means lower actual price realisation in rupee terms. On the other hand, refining companies stand to gain from a weaker dollar, as it would reduce their outgo towards purchase of crude oil and gas. As far as technical charts are concerned, the three state-owned oil marketing companies are likely to trade with a positive bias next week, with Indian Oil being the top pick among the three scrips.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.04.2017

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.04.2017


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Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.04.2017
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Stocks of capital goods companies are likely to trade with a negative bias next week, owing to weak data on output in the sector, as well as a grim outlook for order inflows in the near term. Output of capital goods, considered a proxy for overall investment and consumption demand, contracted 3.4% in February, against growth of 10.9% the previous month, data release by the Central Statistics Office showed. In February 2016, output in the sector had contracted 9.3%. In the coming week, engineering behemoth Larsen & Toubro could trade in a narrow range. The stock had risen marginally after the company's arm Larsen & Toubro Construction won an order worth 52.50 bln rupees from Qatar earlier this week. However, prospects in the short term didn't look too encouraging. L&T's announced order flows for 4QFY17 (Jan-Mar) stand low at 155 bln rupees. Power generation orders continued to be muted, with no major orders announced by BHEL. However, prospects for Cummins India for the next few weeks look bright, owing to a surge in both domestic and export businesses.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week - 17 to 21.04.201 7

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week - 17 to 21.04.201 7


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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week - 17 to 21.04.201 7
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Stocks of most metal and mining companies are likely to extend this week's correction to next week as well, as safe-haven assets gain favour over metals due to geopolitical tensions. Stocks of most companies fell 1-9% this week, with shares of Vedanta taking the sharpest knock due to weak base metal prices, and the stock going ex-dividend. Fundamental think we believe that one must utilise the correction in these stocks as a buying opportunity, especially given that valuations are reasonable. Companies are likely to show very good earnings growth (in Apr-Jun), so in that context, stocks are not very expensive. Particularly positive on stocks of Tata Steel, Vedanta and JSW Steel.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.04.2017

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.04.2017


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Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.04.2017
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Stocks of pharmaceutical companies are likely to be mixed next week, as investors take positions based on earnings of these companies for the quarter ended March. The bias for the sector, however, is negative on account of various headwinds, both in the domestic and US markets. Pharmaceutical companies are expected to report modest growth in the March quarter due to fierce competition, slowing sales growth and regulatory issues, especially those pertaining to the US Food and Drug Administration. Also, the strength in the rupee against the dollar has resulted in market participants staying away from the export-oriented sector. Last trading day the rupee ended at 64.41 a dollar, which, while weaker than 64.28 at the end of last week, is substantially stronger than the 68-odd levels at the beginning of the year. The stronger rupee was the most severe of all headwinds facing the sector. Caps on prices of drugs in India and the fact that the government may make it mandatory to highlight names of generics on medicine packets are other concerns. Currently, almost all drugs sold in India are branded generics. On technical charts, the Nifty Pharma index is trading below all its major moving averages, which indicate a bearish bias. It faces strong resistance at around 10800 points.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

I.T Stocks Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.04.2017

I.T Stocks Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.04.2017


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I.T Stocks Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.04.2017


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Post the disappointing Jan-Mar performance of Infosys Ltd, stocks of information technology companies are seen falling slightly next week. Infosys last week reported its earnings for the March quarter as well as for the entire 2016-17 (Apr-Mar) the first among large cap IT companies to do so. Stocks of the IT major fell nearly 4% yesterday after it announced lower-than- expected dollar sales growth guidance of  6.1-8.1% for the current financial year that started Apr 1, and as sales struggled to grow due to "external distractions" and weak execution. Market and investors were expecting Infosys to guide for a 6-9% growth in dollar sales. Large cap companies' stocks ended down 1-4%. This is seen having a negative bearing on the entire sector as the guidance and the glum demeanor of the management today implied a bleak demand environment for IT companies. Added that expect the rupee to remain a problem for the software exporters. The Indian currency, which ended at 64.41 a dollar today, is likely to rise further in coming weeks. Investors will now watch out for the Jan-Mar performance of Tata Consultancy Services to be detailed on Tuesday. The company is seen reporting a 3.2% sequential fall in consolidated net profit at 65.95 bln rupees and consolidated net sales of 299.1 bln rupees. After Infosys' performance, Investors and traders are watch out for signs of demand recovery and revival in client spend. Also, clarity surrounding US visa issues and improvement in operating margin will be in focus.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017
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Domestic stocks are seen volatile next week as the earnings season is set to kick in with results of information technology behemoth Infosys due Thursday. Release of key economic data and persisting geopolitical concerns following the US' missile strike on Syria are likely to add to the uncertainty. Domestic stock markets will be shut next Friday on account of Good Friday. The data on Consumer Price Index-based inflation for March will be released on Wednesday, as will the February data for index of industrial production. Bias for domestic equities, however, remains positive as foreign as well as domestic investors continue to pour money into Indian shares, and on expectations of a full-blown earnings recovery in the new fiscal year. Yesterday, the 51-stock index ended at 9198.30, down 63.65 points or 0.7% from the previous close, while the Sensex ended at 29706.61, down 220.73 points or 0.7%. Traders will closely monitor the movement of the Indian rupee over the next week after it appreciated nearly 1% against the dollar this week. Pharmaceutical, textile, software, and auto-ancillary companies may fall if the Indian unit strengthens more, as their revenue from exports will be hit. Movement of global stock markets will also be eyed as they wait what comes out of the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Despite global equities being subdued today after the US launched cruise missiles on an air base in Syria, some market participants do not see the development as a major threat. It is unlikely that the US strike into Syria will materialise into something serious, as they will not want to directly confront Russia. The focus will largely shift to earnings; information technology companies are likely to post disappointing earnings, as are banks and pharmaceutical companies.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook – 10 to 14.04.2017

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Capital Goods Stocks Outlook – 10 to 14.04.2017
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Stocks of capital goods companies are likely to extend gains next week, riding on the buoyant sentiment following robust outlook on some sector majors. Larsen & Toubro and Bharat Heavy Electricals should lead the pack in the short term. Stocks of L&T, which has risen 11% in the past two weeks on a series of high-value orders. The engineering behemoth has won an order from Power Grid Corp of India Ltd worth nearly 2 bln rupees for a tower package. State-owned BHEL hit a one-year high at 174.65 rupees earlier this week, as the company said it exceeded the capacity addition target in the utility segment during the 12th Five-year Plan period that ended March. In the five-year period, the company added 45,274 MW of capacity in the utility segment, higher than the target of 41,661 MW. BHEL is on course towards the 200-rupee mark in the near-tomedium term if the positive momentum around it sustains. Analysts are also bullish on Siemens' stock, as it continues to gain from consortium Sumitomo Electric Industries' $520-mln order win from Power Grid. Market participants would also keep a watch on the Index of Industrial Production data for February, to be released post market hours on Wednesday by the Central Statistics Office.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Stocks of metal and mining companies are likely to react to stock-specific triggers in the holiday-truncated week ahead, even as it follows the broader market's trend due to lack of triggers. On Friday, the market will be shut for Good Friday. Shares of most metal companies, especially steel, gained this week on the back of robust production data and reports of price hike of flat rolled products. Apart from this, comments by Steel Minister Birender Singh, that a proposal has been floated to use locallyproduced steel in government projects, also aided gains in shares of steel companies. The minister also said the National Steel Policy is likely to be finalised soon, and that the ministry is in talks with other ministries to raise the consumption of steel, which will keep these companies in focus in the near term. Technical analysts believe that the larger trend for steel companies' stocks is positive. Tata Steel's stock is likely to see strong upward momentum after 509-rupee level, while Jindal Steel & Power's shares are expected to rise up to 142-rupee level in the coming week. However, fundamental analysts are not too upbeat on the sector, as they believe that valuations are stretched and that the price hikes taken by these companies may not sustain given the low demand environment. The uptrend in coking coal and iron ore costs, which is raw material for these companies, is also a concern as the market may not be ready for another round of price hikes, which is likely to hit margins of these producers, and also mar their Jan-Mar earnings. Average steel price hike of 1,500-2,500 rupees taken during the quarter will not be enough to offset this higher cost (coking coal) profile despite higher volumes, resulting in sequential decline in EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) for most steel plays. Apart from steel, stocks of aluminium producers will also be in focus on expectation of protective measures for local producers. Reports suggest that the government may either consider a minimum import price or anti-dumping duty for aluminium.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017
Stocks of cement companies are seen rising next week because of the price hikes undertaken this week. Cogencis had reported on Thursday that cement makers have increased prices by 15-60 rupees per 50-kg bags in different parts across the country. While the increase in prices in southern states was because of the on going truck strike that has hit supply, dealers in Delhi-National Capital Region attributed the hike to steady recovery in demand. Demand for cement was hit by the government's decision to demonetize old 500- and 1,000-rupee currency notes from Nov 9, in order to curb black money. Cement companies had reduced prices after demonetisation in order to revive demand and maintain market share. However, demand has started improving since mid-January as remonetisation gathers pace. This has given cement companies room to increase prices. Demand has improved and is expected to increase further. Smart cities, affordable housing, and irrigation projects will gather pace ahead and will boost demand. However, the drought in southern states may affect demand there. Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka are facing water crisis and the situation is likely to worsen in the coming months.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017
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Stocks of information technology companies are seen moving in a narrow range with a negative bias next week, as investors await Jan-Mar results. IT giant Infosys will kick start the earnings season for the sector and announce its results on Thursday. While the market speculates whether Infosys will give any guidance on its revenue growth during 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) after having cut its view thrice in 2016-17 (Apr-Mar), some analysts expect the company to guide its growth in a range of 7-10% in constant currency terms and 6-9% in dollar terms. The technology company had revised its revenue growth guidance for 2016-17 to 7.5-8.5% in dollar terms from 11.8-13.8% guided in April last year. If Infosys reduces its guidance as compared to last year then that heat will be seen on the stock next week. The company's quarterly performance will also have an impact on other IT stocks as it would largely set the trend for the sector. Stocks of Infosys are expected to bounce back from 981.55 rupees at today's close, if the company posts good results for Jan-Mar. Analysts also expect stocks of Tata Consultancy Services, another major Nifty IT constituent, to perform well as it is likely to post positive results notwithstanding the seasonal weakness of fewer working days. TCS is likely to announce its financial statement for Jan-Mar in the third week of April. Apart from the expected weak results from most domestic software services exporters, factors such as looming threat on US visa policy changes and appreciation in the rupee are seen weighing on the sector. A strong rupee against the US dollar is negative for IT companies because they get a large portion of revenue from export of services. Decision to execute Brexit in 2017 would also mount pressure on the IT stocks. Investors continue to prefer Wipro because of its better performance compared with other companies. Stocks of Wipro are likely to trade flat in the week ahead.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.