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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017


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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017
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As the outcome of the state Assembly elections in India, as well as a meeting of the US Federal Reserve draw close, investors may stay on the sidelines, limiting the movement of share indices to a narrow range next week. On Monday, domestic share indices will take cues from US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech in Chicago. Yellen is expected to provide clues on whether or not the US Fed will raise interest rates later this month. While the outcome of state Assembly elections will be released on Mar 11, the US central bank will meet on Mar 14-15 for its monetary policy review. Caution still prevails in the market ahead of Yellen's speech to check for any confirmation on March rate increase. Investors were awaiting results of the Assembly elections to see whether demonetisation had turned voters in favour of the Bhartiya Janata Party. So far this year, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex have gained over 8% each. Investors will also monitor the initial public offerings of Music Broadcast and Avenue Super Markets, slated to open for subscription next week. Shares of Bharti Airtel will be in focus, as the company has inked a pact with Millicom International to merge their operations in Ghana. Shares of Housing Development Finance Corp may gain, as the company has announced an interim dividend of 3 rupees a share.

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017



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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017
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The stocks of most automobile companies are seen trading within a close range next week, with twowheeler companies in focus. The stocks of Hero MotoCorp Ltd and Bajaj Auto Ltd are looking strong on the charts for next week. In the monthly sales figures for February, two-wheeler companies showed signs of recovery post demonetisation blues on account of improved demand and better cash availability. India's largest twowheeler manufacturer, Hero MotoCorp Ltd, posted a 4.8% on-year decline in its monthly unit sales in February as against a 13.5% on-year fall in January. Bajaj Auto Ltd, the second largest two-wheeler maker, also showed an improved picture, with sales of motorcycles rising 4% on year in February to  244,958 units, against a 16% on-year fall in January. -TVS Motor's growth is expected to outperform the industry in the long term, both in terms of volume and revenue, as the company is seen better aligned to emerging consumer trends in domestic twowheeler space. -Eicher Motors Ltd, market leader in the premium motorcycle category, is expected to remain the biggest beneficiary of the emerging trend of leisure transportation, the report added. The Domestic monthly sales of Tata Motors Ltd and Ashok Leyland Ltd in February showed a mixed picture for commercial vehicles as companies saw less pre-buying than expected, ahead of implementation of Bharat Stage-IV emission norms with effect from Apr 1. Most commercial vehicle makers had expected more pre-buying of their Bharat Stage-III compliant vehicles before Apr 1, as these vehicles would not be manufactured after Apr 1 and Bharat Stage-IV compliant vehicles will also be more expensive. However, volumes of medium and heavy commercial vehicles are expected to recover in March as with the short-term demonetisation impact wearing off, pre-buying of Bharat Stage-III compliant vehicles and infrastructure activity-led demand would also pick up.

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week - 06 to 10.03.2017

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week - 06 to 10.03.2017


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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week - 06 to 10.03.2017
The share of cement companies are seen falling next week, as investors say it will take some time for
demand to peak. Cement demand increased last month, but prices haven't even reached the predemonetisation levels of October. This is a long cycle and it will take some time for the price to go above October levels. Demand for cement had taken a hit after the government announced the withdrawal of high-value currency notes from circulation on Nov 8. Dealers across the country were forced to cut cement prices by 10-15% to clear inventories, raising concern about a sharp drop in the profitability of companies in the sector. In the Union Budget for 2017-18 (Apr-Mar), Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had allocated a record 3.96 trln rupees for the infrastructure sector, up 10.5% from 2016-17. He also announced a host of measures for the real estate sector, including according infrastructure status to affordable housing. Budget was positive and it will certainly increase the demand. Remonetisation is already helping, and will further help (in increasing demand). Not to forget, we had a favourable monsoon. Next week, shares of ACC Ltd and Ambuja Cements Ltd are seen negative.

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook - 06 to 10.03.2017

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook - 06 to 10.03.2017


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Capital Goods Stocks Outlook - 06 to 10.03.2017
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The shares of capital goods companies are seen trading in a narrow range and track the trend in the
broad market next week. Absence of any fresh triggers for the sector is likely to keep action subdued.
Weak outlook for the sector has been one of the major reasons for investors shying away from buying
shares aggressively. Weak order inflows due to muted demand, slower order execution, and high working capital requirement has marred the profitability of most companies in the sector. Sector major Larsen & Toubro today said that its construction division has got orders worth 21.7 bln rupees across power, water and construction businesses in India and overseas. However, the news did little to move the stock, which ended 0.2% down as market participants remain wary of the company meeting its annual sales growth and order inflow guidance. L&T said that it will end the current financial year with 10% on-year growth in both sales and order inflows. The company had earlier projected a sales growth of 12-15% and order inflow growth of 15%.

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week - 06 to 10.03.2017

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week - 06 to 10.03.2017


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Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week - 06 to 10.03.2017
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The shares of most pharmaceutical companies are likely to rise next week as investors expect strong
growth in the domestic market, and as concerns over their US business is seen easing. Companies
reported mixed growth in Oct-Dec due to disruption from demonetisation, Axis Capital said in its report. The impact of demonetisation is expected to reduce in Jan-Mar, and will fade out by the beginning of the next fiscal. In the US market, while there is unpredictability over President Donald Trump's policies, we see his comments about reducing drug prices as positive for Indian generic drug makers. Another factor due to which market participants may focus on companies with less US exposure is regulatory issues. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries' Halol facility and four units of erstwhile-Ranbaxy Laboratories are due for a re-inspection by US Food and Drug Administration. While the Halol plant received a warning letter from the US FDA in December 2015, the four Ranbaxy units have been under import alert for as long as a decade. Sun Pharma completed the acquisition of Ranbaxy in 2015.

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017


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IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017
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The shares of most information technology companies, except Infosys and Hexaware Technologies, are likely to continue this week's range-bound movement amid lack of triggers. Possibility of a likely buyback prevents Infosys' stock from any sharp fall in the upcoming week. The company is looking to buy back $2.5 bln worth of shares in April. Infosys' buyback plan will deplete the company's cash reserves and hamper the company's ability to make a big acquisition. It may also impact compensation of some top executives of the company, they added. Wipro is seen underperforming next week. The stock witnessed very low rollovers to the March derivative series. Open interest in Wipro's March contract was the lowest in three years. Following are Thursday's closing share prices of key IT companies, in rupees, on the National Stock Exchange, compared with a week ago, and the change in percentage terms.

Telecom Stocks Outlook – 06 to 10.03.2017

Telecom Stocks Outlook – 06 to 10.03.2017


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Telecom Stocks Outlook – 06 to 10.03.2017
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The movement in shares of telecommunication companies is likely to be stock specific next week we
expecting shares of Bharti Airtel Ltd and Idea Cellular Ltd to be range-bound, while those of Tata
Communications Ltd to rise. Reliance Communications Ltd is seen weak. The telecom sector is currently in the midst of a tariff war waged by the newest entrant Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd, which after offering free data and voice services till Mar 31, has unveiled aggressive tariff plans staring Apr1. The subsidiary of Reliance Industries Ltd on Mar 1 unveiled a bouquet of prepaid and postpaid plans starting at 19 rupees for one-day validity up to 9,999 rupees for 360-day period. The recent tariff plans announced by Reliance Jio look very attractive and other operators will be under pressure to announce matching tariff plans. The shift in subscriber base among operators will also be keenly watched. The March quarter will be difficult for Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular we expecting a drop in realisations for the companies. Bharti Airtel's consolidated net profit had seen a 65.5% sequential decline in the December quarter, while Idea Cellular had reported a net loss, its first as a listed company. Tough times in the sector have also led to consolidation with Bharti Airtel last week announcing it will acquire the spectrum, licences, operations, and employees of the Indian arm of Norway's Telenor ASA. The agreement also includes the former taking over Telenor India's outstanding spectrum payment and operational contracts, including tower lease. The sector is also awaiting detail on the proposed merger between Vodafone India and Idea Cellular announced last month.

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017


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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017
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The stocks of major mining and metal companies are likely to rise next week as underlying trend is
largely positive for such stocks. But as any major trigger for these stocks is unlikely next week the
upside may remain capped. In terms of fundamentals, although there is still volatility in prices of
both ferrous and non-ferrous metals, commodity prices have generally been on a rise, which is seen
lending support to metal and mining stocks. A major movement in prices of raw materials, coking coal for instance, can also have an impact on prices and affect metal companies' stocks. The government has been making the right noises as far as steel companies are concerned. There are reports that measures like compulsory procurement of domestic steel in government contracts may be introduced as one of the measures to push domestic consumption of locally made steel. Other measures being mulled include a scrapping policy for old automobiles, which will in turn help in setting up scrap-based steel units by providing adequate raw material. Any new developments on such policy measures may impact stocks in the sector, particularly those of steel companies.

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017


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Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017
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The shares of public sector oil refining and marketing companies--Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd--are likely to trade in a range next week. The three stocks are backed by strong fundamentals, including rising domestic demand for fuel and strong refining and marketing margins, which lends them a positive outlook for the near term. However, speculation over possible mergers among state-owned oil and gas companies to create integrated players is rife and stocks of different companies may react differently to any new information that comes out on this front. There have already been reports that either Hindustan Petroleum or Bharat Petroleum may be merged into ONGC. There are also reports that the government may want consolidation among some of its other undertakings as well. While these reports have been termed as speculative and premature by government officials, they have had an impact on stock prices and may continue to do so in case more such reports come out over the next few days. In the absence of any other major triggers, movement in shares of oil companies is likely to be influenced by crude oil prices, news flow, and sentiment in the broader market. Prices of crude oil have appreciated in the past three months and have been stable at around $55 per barrel for some time now. This has helped stocks of upstream companies such as ONGC, Cairn India Ltd, and Oil India Ltd. The outlook for upstream companies also remains positive in the near term, as the newfound strength in crude oil prices has not waned. The rise in prices of crude oil followed the decision of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut output by 1.8 mln bbl per day in the first six months of 2017.

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017


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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 06 to 10.03.2017
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The Bank stocks are seen trading in a range next week, owing to lack of sector-specific triggers. However, a positive bias will be seen if the Nifty Bank index remains firm above the positional support level of 20200. The index is expected to find support at 20400-20500 and face resistance at 20800-20950 levels. We feel the outperformance in the banking stocks will pick up pace in the coming weeks. Any major selling in the index is likely to get arrested near 20200. Investors may remain on the sidelines till data on headline inflation for February is released by the Central Statistics Office on Mar 14. Interest-rate sensitive bank stocks take trading cues from retail inflation levels, as these provide indications of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy action. However, bank stocks might slide if market participants continue to book profits after benchmark indices hit 52-week highs on Thursday. Among individual stocks, State Bank of India and its listed subsidiaries--State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur, State Bank of Mysore and State Bank of Travancore--are likely to be in focus, as the parent bank has fixed Mar 17 as the record date for the merger of the associate banks with itself.

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 06.10.03.2017

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 06.10.03.2017


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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 06.10.03.2017
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The shares of most fast-moving consumer goods companies are seen rising marginally next week, as
trend in the broad market is expected to be bullish. However, on Monday, domestic share indices will
take cues from US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech in Chicago, due later today. Yellen is
expected to provide cues on whether or not the US Fed will raise interest rates this month.
The US central bank will meet on Mar 14-15 for its monetary policy review, which will be closely
monitored by the Indian market. The Nifty FMCG index witnessed marginal profit booking this week and closed slightly lower, in line with benchmark indices. Traders can consider fresh buying in select counters like Jubilant FoodWorks, Hindustan Unilever, and Britannia Industries. Another positive factor is that companies in the sector, despite being faced with demonetisation, have largely been able to endure the phase. A lower-than-expected drop in volumes post the currency ban is seen taking negative pressure off in the near term. ITC will be watched keenly next week as the stock ended lower today, on reports that the goods and services tax levy may go up to 40% for de-merit products such as tobacco--the GST Council has proposed raising the peak tax rate in the Bill to 20% from the current 14%. After a slight fall this week, Hindustan Unilever's stock found support and rebounded with an increase in volumes. It shows the stock's potential to remain upwards in the near term.

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017


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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017
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Domestic stock indices are expected to be range-bound next week, with expecting some profit booking as benchmark indices last trading day ended near their 52-week highs. This week is a truncated one as markets has shut on Friday for Mahashivratri. The Nifty 50 ended at 8939.50, up 12.60 points or 0.1%, off its 52-week high of 8982.15 touched on Thursday. The Nifty 50 is just 179.70 points off its lifetime high of 9119.20. Today, Sensex closed at 28892.97, up 28.26 points or 0.1% from the previous close. The 52-week high for the 30-stock index is 29077.28, touched on Sep 8. Investors will also stay cautious amid the ongoing Assembly elections, and would rather wait for results. Benchmark indices have come up sooner than expected, and we can see some correction at higher levels. Post demonetisation, the Nifty 50 had touched a low of 7893.80 points on Dec 26. If the state election results will favour the ruling government (at the Centre) then it will be good for the markets Midcap and smallcap stocks are likely to see some early corrections, as most of them are near their 52- week or lifetime highs. Stocks in the information technology space due to hopes of more companies following in the footsteps of Tata Consultancy Services, for buying back shares to reward investors.

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017


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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017
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Bank stocks are seen trading with a positive bias next week, taking cues from broader markets. The Nifty Bank index is expected to find support at 20550-20300 levels and face resistance at 20950-21100. The index ended at 20876.65, up 1.6% on week. We expects the ongoing gains to continue, as decent rollovers were seen. Also, in terms of build-up of open interest, more long positions were built at the beginning of the March series. The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee's meeting on Feb 7-8 indicate that the Reserve Bank of India has adopted a more proactive policy stance to lend flexibility for future policy action in either direction. The central bank aims to get close to the retail inflation target of 4% in a calibrated manner, and ensure that the upper tolerance limit of 6% is not breached beyond nine months in any scenario. In the coming week, State Bank of India is likely to gain, as the government notified the effective date of the merger of five of its associate banks with itself. The merger, when it comes into effect, will catapult the lender into top 50-bank list in the world. Earlier, SBI Chairman Arundhati Bhattacharya had said that once the merger is complete, SBI will have a network of 23,899 branches and 271,765 employees under its fold. She said that as of Dec 31, the bank's consolidated base of deposits was 26 trln rupees, while its loan book was at over 18 trln rupees. As of Dec 31, the balance sheet of SBI and its five associates—State Bank of Bikaner & Jaipur, State Bank of Hyderabad, State Bank of Mysore, State Bank of Patiala, and State Bank of Travancore--was above 32 trln rupees. Among other public sector banks, Canara bank is likely to gain, as it will move closer to completing the sale of 13.45% stake in its home finance subsidiary Can Fin Homes. The lender today fixed 2,000 rupees a share as the base price for stake sale in its home finance subsidiary.

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week - 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week - 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017


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Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week - 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017
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Stocks of most pharmaceutical companies are likely to rise next week as concerns over the sector's
regulatory issues and pricing pressure in the domestic and US markets are seen factored in the price.
While individual operating metrics remain hostage to company-specific dynamics, we believe that the
overall sector earnings are close to trough and expect sector performance to improve in the coming
quarters on increased approvals/launches in the US and benign domestic conditions. Structurally, our positive bias for domestic-heavy companies with expanding US presence and low US growth hurdle rates (Cipla and Alembic) remains unchanged. Cipla is the top pick for investots as majority of the company's revenue is from India, even as it expands its presence in the lucrative US market. Also expects Cadila Healthcare to trade with a positive bias, the sharp rise seen last week has made the stock a tad expensive at current levels. Last week, the stock soared by nearly a fourth as the US Food and Drug Administration did not issue any observation for deviation from good manufacturing practices after inspections at its Moraiya facility.

Cement Stocks Outlook for the Week – 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017

Cement Stocks Outlook for the Week – 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017


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Cement Stocks Outlook for the Week – 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017
Stocks of cement companies are seen rising next week, as adequate supply of currency notes is seen
reviving demand for the commodity. Demand has started improving as the cash supply is improving. The demand since mid-January is much better than what it was in December post Demonetisation.
Cement demand had taken a hit after the government withdrew high-value banknotes from circulation
from Nov 9. Dealers across the country were forced to cut cement prices by 10-15% to clear inventories, raising fears about a sharp drop in the sector's profitability. However, cement prices have improved in Jan-Feb on the back of a rise in demand. Shree Cement Ltd has increased cement prices in Delhi-National Capital Region by 15 rupees per bag, while UltraTech Cement, Dalmia Bharat Ltd, ACC Ltd, Birla Corp Ltd have increased prices by 3-18 rupees in eastern states. The Union Budget for 2017-18 (Apr-Mar), with its focus on infrastructure and affordable housing, is also seen pushing up demand. There is no doubt that Budget will increase the demand for cement in the country. The only doubts are about the timing. The increase in demand because of Budget will most likely be felt in Oct-Dec, post monsoon. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley allocated a record 3.96 trln rupees for the infrastructure sector in the Budget, up 10.5% from 2016-17. He also announced a host of measures for the real estate sector, including according infrastructure status to affordable housing.

Auto Stocks Outlook for the Week – 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017

Auto Stocks Outlook for the Week – 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017



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Auto Stocks Outlook for the Week – 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017
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Stocks of most automobile companies are seen trading with a slight positive bias next week, with twowheeler companies being in focus. Stocks of two-wheeler companies, such as Hero MotoCorp and Bajaj Auto, have not shown much movement after they announced earnings. So, next week we are expecting some uptick there. Pune-based Bajaj Auto had reported a net profit of 9.2 bln rupees for the December quarter, as against the consensus estimate of 8.5 bln rupees. India's largest two-wheeler manufacturer, Hero MotoCorp Ltd, had posted Oct-Dec net profit at 7.7 bln rupees, beating estimates of 6.9 bln rupees. The expected hit from the demonetisation of old 500-, and 1,000-rupee notes in November, which had led to a sharp fall in demand of motorcycles and scooters due to cash scarcity, was offset to an extent by lower input costs. In the long term bullish on commercial vehicle companies and two-wheeler makers. The commercial vehicle segment is seen getting immediate support from the purchases ahead of the rollout of Bharat Stage-IV emission norms on Apr 1. While two-wheeler makers are likely to see weak on-year growth in monthly sales numbers to be released in the first week of March, in the long-run, higher rural spend and gradual economic recovery are seen bringing demand back on track. In the Union Budget for 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) detailed early this month, the government increased the outlay for rural, agriculture and allied sectors and the rural job guarantee scheme and also offered incentives to crucial sectors like irrigation. These moves are seen boosting rural demand. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd is also looking good from a long-term perspective, with the company's 16-month old model, Baleno hatchback, having a waiting period of 24 weeks. Maruti's latest entrant, Ignis, is getting a lukewarm response but the popularity of its other models create a strong outlook for the automaker.

I.T Stocks Outlook for the week – 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017

I.T Stocks Outlook for the week – 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017


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I.T Stocks Outlook for the week – 27.02.2017 to 03.03.2017
  www.rupeedesk.in )

Stocks of information technology companies are likely to trade with a positive bias next week as the
market looks forward to a possible announcement of a buyback of shares by Infosys Ltd. Gains, however, may be capped as domestic stocks are likely to see a correction as traders book profits after six consecutive sessions of gains. The stock market will remain closed on Friday on account of Mahashivratri. Investors are speculating that sector major Infosys and other incumbent players may also announce a share buyback, as similar moves by TCS and Cognizant are expected to put pressure on them. On Monday, stocks of Tata Consultancy Services hit a three-month high of 2,555 rupees, as the company revealed its plan to spend 160 bln rupees to buy back 56.1 mln shares at 2,850 rupees a share. Amidst recommendations of a share buyback in Infosys by the two former chief financial officers of the company, markets are rife with commentary on exactly how much of its $5.25 bln reserves should be deployed for the buyback, if the decision is taken.