GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 11 to 15.04.2016 (PSU refiners seen robust next week; oil prices eyed)

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 11 to 15.04.2016
(PSU refiners seen robust next week; oil prices eyed)

Shares of the three state-owned refiners--Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp
Ltd and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd are likely to continue with a strong showing in
the immediate term on hopes of robust Jan-Mar earnings, and expectations of inventory
gains and robust refining margins.

There are not any major triggers in the coming week and the trend will be dictated by
news flow, broader market, and of course, global crude oil prices. The coming week is
truncated as markets are closed Thursday and Friday on account of Ambedkar Jayanti
and Ram Navami, respectively.

Prices of crude oil have inched up over the past month or so but have been rangebound.
They have largely stayed between $35 and $40 per barrel. Even as an uptick in prices of crude oil is considered a negative for margins of oil-refining companies, in the current environment, these entities too have benefited from the slight improvement.

Shares of the three state-owned fuel retailers have reacted positively on expectations of
inventory gains due to the recent recovery in crude prices. Though prices of crude oil are largely seen stabilising after some upward movement in the near-to-medium term, it is not clear if the current uptick in prices will continue in the week starting Monday.

Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, along with key executives of public sector oil majors, will be visiting Iran and the United Arab Emirates between Apr 9 and Apr 12.

Possible deals pertaining to crude oil procurement and upstream opportunities may have
a positive impact on the concerned stocks.

Fluctuation in the dollar-rupee exchange rate is also likely to affect stocks of downstream and upstream oil companies. If the dollar strengthens against the rupee, it will hit refining companies, while benefiting upstream players. A weak dollar, on the other hand, will help downstream companies, as India primarily relies on imported crude oil to meet its requirements.