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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 19 to 23.10.2015 (Subdued next week; Asian Paints earnings eyed)

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 19 to 23.10.2015
Subdued next week; Asian Paints earnings eyed
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Stocks of fast moving consumer goods companies are likely to be subdued next week with investors keeping a watch on Asian Paints and Jyothy Laboratories' earnings for Jul-Sep. Nestle India, which got a boost after the tests mandated by Bombay High Court showed that lead content in its Maggi noodles was within acceptable limit, is likely to trend positive next week.

An analyst said there is still a quarter left before the noodles are back on the shelf, and comments by the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India will also be eyed. The disappointing earnings of Hindustan Unilever, which were released earlier this week, and brokerage CLSA downgrading ITC stock, have dampened sentiment for the FMCG sector, which may continue to weigh next week, too.

HUL's earnings came in below estimates, mainly due to decline in price realisation in a high competition environment, and lower other income. The company was able to post good volume growth of 7% but management's comments that competitive intensity is high across segments, and that rural demand is likely to remain stressed indicates that pricing pressure will continue going forward.

CLSA Asia Pacific Markets downgraded ITC stock to 'sell' from 'underperform', stating that the rise in the stock since June is unwarranted given the heightened regulatory risks to cigarette business. From its 52-week low of 294 rupees hit on Jun 15, the stock has risen by 17%. The downgrade outweighed news of hike in king size cigarette prices and increase in price of 70-gm Sunfeast YiPPee! Noodles packet by the company.

Market will eye earnings of Jyothy Laboratories on Tuesday, Asian Paints and Kansai Nerolac on Friday and Godrej Consumer Products on Saturday. As per average of estimates given by eight brokerages, Asian Paints' consolidated net profit is seen rising 26% year-on-year to 4.37 bln rupees in Jul-Sep, and net sales are expected to rise 9% to 38.93 bln rupees. Input cost trends remain deflationary barring select agri-inputs. Promotional intensity across categories (led by detergents and shampoos) remains high. Preferred picks are GCPL (Godrej Consumer), Dabur, BRIT (Britannia), Bajaj Corp, ITC and TGBL (Tata Global Beverages).