GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

India Market Outlook for the week – 02 to 06.01.2017

India Market Outlook for the week – 02 to 06.01.2017
(Cautious in first week of 2017, PM's speech key)

The Domestic shares are likely to trade on a cautious note in the first week of the New Year, as traders expect profit booking to resume on the back of this week's 2.5% gain. A slew of macroeconomic data and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's speech on Saturday will also be in focus. In his speech, Modi is expected to detail the roadmap to deal with the impact of demonetization as well as announce some relief measures will also determine the direction equities take.

The "mood is still pessimistic" after the government demonetization move announced on Nov 8 stole the lustre in the share market. The benchmark Nifty 50 has lost 4.2% between Nov 8 and yesterday, the last day of curbs on cash withdrawal. Unless a major announcement is made, profit taking by investors and traders is likely.

We are expecting a lot of selling pressure in the market as the market has run-up a lot this week. It (Nifty 50) could fall back to 8000-level next week. The rise in the share market followed buying by domestic institutional investors who bought shares worth 43.5 bln rupees till Thursday, according to provisional data available with the exchanges. This was despite institutional investors being net sellers of Indian shares this week. The only way the market is going to go up now is if the FIIs turn around their view and say they are going to buy the value story emerging in the market. A slew of data points will also be eyed, starting with the December HIS Market Purchasing Managers' Index which will be detailed on Monday. Traders will be looking at the data to gauge the
impact of cash curbs on the informal economy.

After a tumultuous, shaky and sometimes shocking year for the share market, indices ended 2016 on a resilient note. Heading in to the New Year, the picture, though, still remain foggy as multiple events that transpired in 2016 play out on the ground next year. From the actual impact of demonetization to the beginning of Donald Trump's presidency in the US, the first half of 2017 offers a lot of nervousness for the market.

We expect weakness in the market to continue till at least March. As for the remaining part, we expect the market to enter into a strong bull run. We could see a turnaround in earnings from June quarter onwards due to lower base effect from Q1 of 2016.

The Budget is expected to be a game changer in the New Year with market participants anticipating a slew of cuts in direct taxes and other stimulus for the rural economy. The roll out of the goods and services tax and an accommodating Reserve Bank of India are other major factors which the markets will be pining their hopes on for a revival in sentiment.

In the short term, market is expected to remain volatile, but as the long-term growth story of the Indian economy is intact, it is expected that market would see 10-12% upside from here on in the New Year. Not all are that optimistic though. Given the uncertainties unleashed in 2016, it will be too far-fetched to make comments on the market's performance in 2017 beyond March.

FMCG Stocks Outlook the week – 02 to 06.01.2017

(May bounce back as cos recover from cash curbs?)
The shares of fast moving consumer goods companies are likely to bounce back after weeks of correction, as companies have slowly begun recovering from the impact of demonetization. The way ITC Ltd and Hindustan Unilever Ltd has recovered last week after falling for most of last month is promising. FMCG companies had been hit by the withdrawal of high-value currency notes, as sales had slowed in most parts of the country. Companies such as HUL have issued statements saying that the cash curbs could hit their performance in the near term. With the cash curbs expected to be eased, the situation had improved in many areas, as companies have made efforts to normalize sales, and this was being reflected on the ground. The cigarette price hike undertaken by ITC had also helped the case.

ITC Ltd, India's largest cigarette maker, raised the prices of packs of ten 74-mm Navy Cut cigarettes, as well as similar packs of 69-mm Gold Flake (regular) by 14.1% to 89 rupees. The shares of ITC gained following the news, hitting their highest levels in a month earlier. This week, the stock has gained 7.5%. Earlier in the week, the stock had rallied on market speculation that the tobacco industry might not see a steep increase in excise duty in the coming Union Budget. The two news reports have supported bullish sentiment for all cigarette companies and ITC is sure to gain more in the coming days.

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 02 to 06.01.2017
(To continue rally next week but mood cautious)

The shares of pharmaceutical companies are likely to continue their rebound next week, but investors are likely to remain cautious as they await clarity from the government on cash withdrawal limits. In today's session, the last this year, the Nifty pharma index ended 14% lower owing to regulatory issues, pricing pressure in both the US and India, and the Indian government's ban on fixed dose combination of drugs.

Market participants expect regulatory pressure to continue in the coming year, as the US Food and Drug Administration, the regulator in one of the world's most lucrative markets, continues its stringent checks. The Regulatory issues will also be the key issue for India's largest drugmaker, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, whose facility at Halol, along with Ranbaxy Laboratories' four units, are due for inspection by US FDA.

Four of Ranbaxy's units have been under an import alert for as much as a decade on account of data integrity issues. Sun Pharma acquired Ranbaxy last year.  The stock is expected to remain negative in the medium term, but is likely to rise next week and may test the resistance level of 660 rupees. The stock is seen finding support at 610 rupees. The general trend in pharmaceutical stocks is likely to be positive in the coming week, as the Nifty pharma index has fallen over 7%. Also, gains in the
broad market are likely to buoy sentiment.

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 02 to 06.01.2017
(Seen positive; Infosys, HCL Tech seen top gainers)

The shares of information technology companies are seen rising as market participants choose to invest in stocks that are insulated from demonetization. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to give a speech on Saturday. In his speech, Modi is expected to detail the roadmap to deal with the impact of cash curbs as well as announce some relief measures. The broader market is likely to trade on a cautious note next week. The Indian currency, which closed at 67.92 rupees to a dollar yesterday, is likely to remain steady majority of next week. However, investors will continue to hold a cautious view on the sector ahead of Oct-Dec earnings and US president-elect Donald Trump's announcement
of policies. Trump, who will take office on Jan 20, is expected to set the tone for his governance during his inaugural speech.

Information technology companies' earnings for the December quarter would be crucial as it would determine if they would be able to achieve double-digit growth for the financial year that ends March. Infosys will kick off the earnings season for the sector on Jan 13. Shares of information technology giant Infosys and HCL Technologies are expected to benefit the most from this uptrend. On the other hand, Tata Consultancy Services and Wipro will see the least gains.

We expect trend in midcap companies to remain positive and have also recommended certain midcap companies such as Mindtree, Ramco Systems and Hexaware Technologies.

Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 02 to 06.01.2017
(Seen subdued as margins under pressure)
The shares of major telecommunication companies are likely to see a negative trend next week due to concern about intense competition hitting pricing power and margins. Traders are likely to view any rise in stock prices as an opportunity to sell. A slew of macroeconomic data, as well as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's speech on Saturday will also be in focus. Free data services by Reliance Industries Ltd's subsidiary Reliance Jio Infocomm, as part of its welcome offer, have led to concern among peers about erosion in market share and a fall in average revenue per user, both for data services and voice calls.

Following Reliance Jio extending its free offer till Mar 31, most telecom operators have cut tariffs steeply. Competition in the telecom industry, triggered by the new entrant, continues to put pressure on the margins of operators such as Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular. For Bharti Airtel, a fall in the company's average revenue per user in the September quarter has weighed on sentiment. Shares of Bharti Airtel may face resistance at 312 rupees and get support at 295 rupees, a Mumbai-based.
Tata Communications, which has so far outperformed the sector, is in a consolidation mode, the analyst said. Resistance for the stock is expected at 650 rupees, while support is seen at 612 rupees. The Idea Cellular stock is seen facing resistance at 78 rupees and getting support at 70 rupees. In the past three months, the stock has fallen 7.1%, and lost nearly half its value this year.
The Reliance Communications stock, which has been under pressure for some time, is seen continuing with the downtrend. It may get support at 31 rupees, while resistance level is expected at 36 rupees. The stock has also fallen  almost 20% in the last three months, while more than half its value has been eroded in the past year.


Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 02 to 06.01.2017
(PSU refiners seen strong; crude prices eyed)

The trend for shares of public sector oil marketing companies Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd is positive for next week and they are expected to outperform the broad market. These stocks are backed by strong fundamentals, including robust domestic demand for fuel and strong refining and marketing margins. For stocks of upstream companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd, Cairn India Ltd, and Oil India Ltd, the rise in prices of crude oil over the past few weeks has lent some strength for the immediate-to-near term.
The recent spurt in prices followed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision to cut output by 1.2 mln barrels per day from January. It was further helped by major non-OPEC producers joining the production management arrangement by agreeing to cut their output by 558,000 bpd. Given that the production cut is scheduled to come into effect from Sunday, crude oil prices may rise next week, which could further help stocks of upstream
oil companies. Though the rise in prices of crude oil will increase input costs for refiners, they are set to benefit from
inventory gains due to the spike.
Also, given that prices of most fuels are now market-linked, the downside of higher crude oil prices for these
companies seems limited for the time being. According to analysts tracking crude oil, futures contracts of the black
liquid are likely to extend gains on both domestic as well as global markets next week, with the production curbs
kicking in.
However, only mid way through January will investors have an idea about how much production is being cut by the
producers. Next week, the January contract of crude oil on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India may find
support at 3,600 rupees a bbl and face resistance at 3,850 rupees. The February-delivery contract on the New York
Mercantile Exchange is seen trading in the range of $52.5-$56.5 a bbl. Fluctuation in the dollar-rupee exchange rates
is also likely to affect shares of oil companies. A weaker rupee will benefit upstream companies as they sell oil and
gas in dollars. Refiners, however, will lose if the dollar strengthens, as their outgo on buying oil and gas will
increase.

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 02 to 06.01.2017
(PM's speech Sat likely to set trend next week)
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's speech on Saturday is expected to set the trend for shares of cement manufacturing
companies in the coming week, as demand for the commodity took a beating post the demonetization of 500-and
1,000-rupee notes on Nov 8.
Though cement stocks ended higher this week, this is believed to be a short-term year-end rally led by foreign funds,
and is unlikely to sustain in January. Large-cap cement stocks such as UltraTech Cement, ACC Ltd, and Ambuja
Cements closed 2-5% higher, while mid-cap stocks Jaiprakash Associates, India Cements, and Shree Cement closed
up 4-9% this week.
Next week, cement stocks are seen tracking any specific announcement by the government on measures to revive
demand in the economy, as well as spends on rural and urban infrastructure. Dealers across the country were forced
to undertake a 10-15% price cut to clear inventories after the government demonetized high-value currency notes.

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 02 to 06.01.2017
(Seen in range with negative bias; PM speech eyed)
Next week, bank stocks are seen trading range-bound with a negative bias due to lack of sector-specific triggers.
However, any new announcements on demonetized currency notes by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday
might provide fresh triggers. Fresh announcements on withdrawal limits from banks are likely, as the deadline for
banks to accept deposit of old notes expired yesterday. The Reserve Bank of India yesterday said that withdrawn
500- and 1,000-rupee currency notes cannot form part of banks' cash balances from Saturday.
Banks' deposits have surged since the government withdrew the legal tender status of high-denomination currency
notes. Limits on currency withdrawal are expected to be lifted in a phased manner, and this is seen positive for banks
as a sudden relaxation might affect banks' operations.

Banks have asked the government and the Reserve Bank of India to continue the withdrawal limits on cash beyond Dec 30, till there is adequate availability of currency notes in
the system. Earlier, State Bank of India Chairman Arundhati Bhattacharya had said that the bank's ability to dispense cash was
limited to the quantum available with it and, therefore, irrespective of whether restrictions on cash withdrawal were
lifted or not, its paying ability would remain constrained

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 02 to 06.01.2017
(Likely to trade in a narrow range next week)
The major stocks in the mining and metals segment are expected to trade in a narrow range in the first week of 2017
as we see no major immediate positive triggers to carry forward the gains made in 2016. The Nifty Metal index rose
over 1% this week, gaining 29.40 points to 2652.50 points. The index underperformed the broader Nifty 50 index
which rose 2.5% over the week.
The Nifty Metal index, however, has gained 45% in 2016, while the Nifty 50 gained only 2% in the same period.
Metal stocks rose this year mainly due to the positive sentiment amid gains in commodity prices. Stocks of most
major ferrous producers' shares ended flat this week.
In fact, we see the ferrous stocks in the consolidation phase for the first two quarters of 2017. However, he said that
the non-ferrous producers' stocks could be in the limelight due to buoyant metal prices. The rise in manganese prices
seen in 2016 has still left some more room for MOIL to increase prices and earn higher profits.