GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 03 to 07.08.2015

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 03 to 07.08.2015
PSU refiners seen in range; bias positive

Stocks of the state-owned oil marketing companies are seen broadly positive next week following softening of oil prices in recent weeks, but concerns over refining margins peaking may cap gains. Also, the broad market trend will be the key. The market is eyeing Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy on Tuesday, and since not many are expecting a further cut in the repo rate, indices will move with a positive bias during the week. The Indian basket of crude oil fell below $54 a barrel this week from over $60 at the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, companies in the sector have been clocking record refining margins, buoyed by robust demand for products.

On Wednesday, Essar Oil reported a sharp expansion in its gross refining margins to $11.05 per
barrel for Apr-Jun from $9.04 a year ago. Cogencis reported earlier this week that Indian Oil Corp. Ltd is likely to report GRM of over $10 per barrel for Apr-Jun, an unprecedented level for public sector refiners.

Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd too are likely to have clocked record refining margins and that along with high marketing margins will help these companies report robust numbers for Apr-Jun when they announce earnings in the second week of August. While the GRM levels will lift the sentiment, most analysts believe these are already being priced in and GRMs are now peaking. Traders may not place huge near-term bets on the basis of better refining margins.

Broadly that will keep the stocks of these three companies in a range next week with a positive bias. For Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd and Oil India Ltd, concerns remain due to lower oil prices and consensus view is that oil prices will continue to remain soft since resumption of supplies from Iran following lifting of sanctions would put more pressure. The near-term outlook for ONGC and Oil India remains weak.