GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.06.2015 to 03.07.2015 In range; bias positive on good monsoon progress

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.06.2015 to 03.07.2015
In range; bias positive on good monsoon progress

Stocks of fast-moving consumer goods companies are seen trading in a range next week, but the bias remains positive due to good progress of the monsoon, which has raised prospects of improvement in rural demand for consumer products. The India Meteorological Department said the southwest monsoon today covered the entire country and total rainfall during Jun 1-26 was 27% above normal at 167.5 mm. While there is optimism over revival in demand, ITC said in its annual report that high growth in the FMCG sector is still a few quarters away. The company, however, expects rebound in FMCG growth in medium term.

For the cigarettes segment, ITC sees the current financial year to remain challenging due to taxation and regulatory issues. Market participants will keep an eye on updates of reports that Hindustan Unilever may buy the Indulekha brand from Kerala-based Mosons Extractions Pvt Ltd for around 5 bln rupees. FMCG majors are looking to improve margins by adding niche and premium products to their portfolio. FMCG stocks will also track the movement in the broader equity markets, which are seen consolidating next week. The markets will keep a watch on Greece's negotiations with its European lenders. There are talks in the market of a surprise rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India due to better-than-expected monsoon, but some analysts remain sceptical on such a move by the apex bank.